The Nevada Gaming Control Board signed off on a request to offer proposition bets on the NFL draft earlier this year, which meant that Nevada sportsbooks could accept wagers on the event. After a successful NFL draft, those sportsbooks offered prop bets for Thursday's NBA draft.
Betting closed Wednesday night.
Here is our live prop bet tracker on which bets cashed during the 2017 NBA draft.
Will over/under 3.5 players from Duke be drafted in Round 1 of the 2017 NBA draft? For the first time, you can bet on the outcome in Nevada. Here are the final betting odds from the Westgate Las. Mavericks at Rockets: Mavericks +9.5. I've always been a fan of buying on bad news when the right. One other solid bet is gauging whether or not the Orlando Magic will find their way inside the top three selections in the 2017 NBA Draft. The Magic have a better chance that New York or Minnesota and currently carry the 5th best odds to land the top pick (8.8%) in this year’s draft.
Odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
NBA draft props
Total number of Duke players drafted in Round 1: Under 3.5
(3) Jason Tatum
(12) Luke Kennard
(20) Harry Giles
Total number of Kentucky players drafted in Round 1: Over 2.5
(5) De'Aaron Fox
(11) Malik Monk
(14) Bam Adebayo
Total number of UCLA players drafted in Round 1: Under 2.5
(2) Lonzo Ball
(18) TJ Leaf
Total number of Oregon players drafted overall: Over 2.5
(38) Jordan Bell
(41) Tyler Dorsey
(45) Dillon Brooks
Total number of Kansas players drafted overall: Over 1.5
(4) Josh Jackson
(34) Frank Mason
Total number of Gonzaga players drafted overall: Over 1.5
(10) Zach Collins
Best Nba Prop Bets
(55) Nigel Williams-Goss
Will there be more players drafted overall from Oregon or UCLA?
UCLA (3)
(2) Lonzo Ball
(18) TJ Leaf
(47) Ike Anigbogu
Oregon (3)
(38) Jordan Bell
(41) Tyler Dorsey
(45) Dillon Brooks
Will there be more players drafted overall from Indiana or South Carolina?
Indiana (2)
(23) OG Anunoby
(42) Thomas Bryant
South Carolina (1)
(48) Sindarius Thornwell
The 2017 NBA Draft is set up to be a fantastic event, with star talent like Lonzo Ball, Markelle Fultz and Jayson Tatum all vying for the top pick in the draft. Who goes number one is certainly one huge NBA Draft prop bet we’ll all want to keep an eye on, but before we even get to the draft we have several opportunities to win some cash.
Betting on the NBA playoffs can be a great time, but it’s always fun to take advantage of special betting opportunities that sports can hand us. That happens on Tuesday night, when the 2017 NBA Draft Lottery sounds off, finalizing the top 14 spots in round one of this year’s draft.
The new draft order will spark trade rumors and have several of the top college basketball prospects rising or falling based on where draft gurus pegged them to go before and which teams are selecting in what spots now. Before we even get to that, however, we can all freely bet on what that exact order might end up being.
Thanks to NBA Draft Lottery prop bets, we can take a look at the percentages laid out in front of us and gauge which teams will be in enviable spots when the draft order is finalized. Are the Boston Celtics locks to land the top pick in the draft? Will it be the Lakers or Suns? Will some sneaky teams emerge as top-three pick contenders?
Let’s consider it all while taking a look at the NBA Draft Lottery odds over at Sportsbetting.ag:
Top Pick in the Draft
The Boston Celtics lead the way as the most likely team to land the top pick in the 2017 NBA Draft. They owned the lottery pick of the Brooklyn Nets, who had the worst record in the NBA during the 2016-17 regular season.
They lead the way with a 25% chance of securing the top pick, followed by the Suns (19.9%) and Lakers (15.6%). Here are the odds associated with the lottery teams in accordance to their potential to nab the 1st pick in the draft:
- Celtics +285
- Suns +380
- Lakers +500
- 76ers +550
- Magic +950
- Timberwolves +1600
- Knicks +1600
- Mavericks +4500
- Pelicans +5000
- Hornets +6600
- Pistons +8000
- Nuggets +10000
- Heat +10000
All 14 NBA teams that missed the playoffs have a shot at the top pick, or a spot inside the top three. From that point on, the lottery sorts out based on record from the previous season.
Oddsmakers are offering some very nice upside no matter where you go. Boston is a somewhat safe play for the top pick, but given the increased odds for the Suns and Lakers, you could really toss some flier bets at all three and just hope one sticks. They’re accounting for a whopping 59% of the lottery’s chances at the top pick, so it is a calculated hedge.
While it’s likely one of those teams win the top pick in the draft, that is far from a lock. Surprises happen all the time in the Draft Lottery and teams with very small percentage chances have won before. Dallas and everyone below them have less than a 2% chance of getting the top pick, but any of these teams are worth a flier bet, as they have huge payout upside.
There is an argument to bet on just about every team here due to the playability, but the best combination of betting value and upside rests with the Lakers. Los Angeles is third in line with a 15% chance of winning, but it would only make sense that they’d get the chance to draft hometown product, Lonzo Ball.
Boston and Phoenix are your other best bets, but we’re picking the Lakers to nab the top pick.
Celtics Pick Odds
If you’re not picking the Celtics to land the top selection, you can still profit on them by betting they’ll get a different pick inside the top four. They have the best odds to land the first overall pick, but if they don’t they’d be next in line at the second or third pick. If they didn’t earn a top three pick somehow, they’d be the first team to get the #4 pick based on record. Here are their top three pick odds, per Sportsbetting.ag:
- #1 Pick (+290)
- #2 Pick (+340)
- #3 Pick (+430)
- #4 Pick (+170)
I don’t think I’d lay a bet on the Celtics getting the 4th pick in the draft. Not only does it feel unlikely, but the payout is surprisingly low. They’re the odds on favorite to win the top pick, so that bet is understandably playable – and actually more playable than the straight up pick for who gets the #1 selection.
The best value is probably the #2 pick. The #3 pick offers the most upside, but if the Celtics don’t get the top pick, they still have a pretty good advantage over the rest of the teams to land the second. The #3 pick has them dead even with the Suns (17% each), however, so that might be a bigger roll of the dice.
Boston is a fine bet to take down the top pick, but the value and likelihood of the #2 pick is probably the play here. Making more than one bet to hedge with this NBA Draft Lottery prop bet isn’t a bad idea either.
Lakers Pick Odds
I think the Lakers end up getting the #1 pick, but either way, here’s how their odds for landing amongst the first four selections works out:
- #1 Pick (+500)
- #2 Pick (+490)
- #3 Pick (+500)
- Out of Lottery (-120)
I’m not chasing the Lakers falling out of the Lottery, just because there isn’t an upside in it. Their bets are all pretty much the same here, too, so you could really just target the first three picks here; as long as they get one of them, you’re coming out in the green. I like them at #1, but with their pick specifically, the value bet lies at 2 or 3 just because the Celtics hold superior odds and all their bets offer the same upside.
Naturally, if L.A. is supposedly not likely to get the #1 pick, and we’re to believe that, why wouldn’t we jump at the exact same bet for them getting one of the next two picks?
Suns Pick Odds
The Suns are second in line to land the top pick in the 2017 NBA Draft, but if they don’t get that they hold the next best odds at the second, third and fourth pick in the draft. Here’s how you can bet on them before Tuesday’s NBA Draft Lottery:
- #1 Pick (+380)
- #2 Pick (+400)
- #3 Pick (+450)
- #4 Pick (+205)
- #5 Pick (+650)
We can’t ignore the value of the Suns somehow landing at the #5 pick, but that doesn’t feel likely. There also isn’t enough value with the #4 pick, so we’re chasing them somewhere in the top three. We like the Lakers for the top spot, but Phoenix remains firmly in play with a 19.9% chance to nab that pick.
Like the Lakers, if we can get that same bet at the 2nd and 3rd pick and the Suns aren’t supposed to win the top pick in the first place, we probably need to jump at that value.
There is some serious guesswork involved here, so the idea would really be to make modest bets and hedge as best as you can. You can also just try flat out predicting the order of the top 3-4 picks and bet accordingly. That would naturally be highly profitable if you were correct.
Flier Bets
There are a few other flier bets that we can consider making just for fun, and we’re only pointing to the ones that offer serious upside. There are a lot and several different NBA Draft Lottery prop bets on various basketball betting sites, but these are our favorites at Sportsbetting.ag:
Knicks in Top 3
New York is not expected to earn a top three pick, but they do have a 5.3% chance of getting the 1st overall pick and their odds go up to 7% at the #3 pick. They aren’t a lock at all to get inside the top three, but they rank 7th out of 14 teams in terms of top three odds, so they’re worth a look. That’s especially the case with these playable odds:
- Yes (+425)
- No (-450)
Vegas obviously does not believe the Knicks will get the top pick, let alone one in the top three. Making that bet provides a very nice return, however, so it remains a fun Lottery wager.
The Minnesota Timberwolves offer that same exact bet (+425 vs. -450) and actually hold the same exact odds as New York to land a top three pick. If you’re feeling good about the Knicks finding their way into the top three, consider tossing a bet on the Wolves, as well.
One other solid bet is gauging whether or not the Orlando Magic will find their way inside the top three selections in the 2017 NBA Draft. The Magic have a better chance that New York or Minnesota and currently carry the 5th best odds to land the top pick (8.8%) in this year’s draft. They also have a 9% chance to get the 2nd pick and a 10% chance to get the third pick.
Orlando is a fun bet because as the Celtics/Lakers/Suns hear their name called, their odds of landing at two or three should only improve. Here is their bet:
Nba Prop Bets 2017 Results
- Yes (+230)
- No (-250)
I don’t love the playability of this bet either way you look at it, but the Magic do hold better odds than the Knicks or T’Wolves. If we’re betting on them as potential top three pick holders, we at least need to consider Orlando, as well.
The 2017 NBA Draft Lottery is just the start of a new NBA betting season. Remember that there will be much more to think about ahead of the actual draft, while there will be a ton to bet on moving forward as we look forward to awards and the 2017-18 NBA season. Good luck with your Lottery bets on Tuesday!
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